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Published February 7, 2025 . 8 mins read

Are You Ready for Tariffs—Or Are You Just Hoping for the Best?

We’ve all heard the noise—tariffs on materials from China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU and those are the ones we know about. On February 3, the tariffs for Mexico and Canada were delayed for 30 days, but who knows what will happen next? If you’re a contractor, the question isn’t if this affects you. It’s how much—and are you ready?

So, let’s talk about tariffs.

Tariffs are particularly interesting to me as I’ve spent over a decade knee-deep in construction data from 500+ contractors, analyzing market shifts, financial impacts, and everything in between. To give you an idea, I’m talking about hundreds of billions of dollars in contract value. If there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s this: contractors who wait to react get burned. The ones who think ahead, anticipate change, and adjust early? They’re the ones who thrive.

Bruce Orr
Chief Data Scientist & CEO,
ProNovos

Forecasting Is Already a Headache—Tariffs Make It Worse

Let’s be real—forecasting in construction is already tough. You’re juggling labor shortages, material price fluctuations, and unpredictable project timelines. Now, throw in a wildcard like tariffs, and suddenly, your entire cost structure is a moving target.

Ignoring the problem isn’t a strategy. Getting ahead of it is.

What This Means for Your Projects

If you’re not thinking about this now, you’re going to feel it later. Here’s what contractors should be asking:

Upcoming Jobs

Are the materials for your next projects coming from affected countries? If costs spike, do your bids still hold up?

Current Projects

• What’s going on with the buyouts? If tariffs hit mid-project, how bad is the damage?

• Are you locked into supplier contracts, or do you have room to adjust?

• Can your team track costs in real time and shift gears before it’s too late?

Why Smart Project Managers Stay Ahead of the Curve

Your project managers aren’t just paper pushers—they’re the ones who make or break your profitability. If tariffs drive up costs overnight, PMs who are flying blind will run their margins into the ground. The best PMs? They’re already working on what-if scenarios, tweaking forecasts, and ensuring their projects don’t become financial disasters. They have the data. They know their numbers. They adjust before the fire starts. A PM without forecasting tools is like a pilot flying through a storm without instruments. They’ll discover the problem when they hit the ground—hard.

Forecasted Work

• Are your financial models flexible enough to absorb potential cost hikes?

• How do these tariffs change your long-term pricing strategy?

• Are you ready for supply chain disruptions, or are you hoping it’ll all work out?

Why This Matters for Project Managers

The best PMs don’t just care about today—they’re thinking 6-12 months ahead. If they’re not running multiple cost scenarios, they’re setting you up for underbidding, blown-out budgets, and some really bad meetings with the exec team. The smart ones? They’re stress-testing every scenario, setting up cost alerts, and making sure they’ve got contingency budgets in place before things go sideways.

If your PMs aren’t running what-if scenarios, your profits are already at risk.

Protecting Your Cash Flow & Profitability

Cash flow is king. You let it slip, and your entire operation is on the ropes.

Here’s what contractors should be doing right now:

Updating cash flow models to account for potential cost jumps

Building in contingency budgets that aren’t just an afterthought

Lock in prices early to secure materials now to avoid price hikes later. Work with suppliers to negotiate bulk purchasing or long-term agreements.

Tightening up contracts so you’re not eating the cost of material spikes

Margins in construction are already thin. Let them get thinner, and you’re working for free.

Scenario Planning: The Key to Staying in the Game

This isn’t about guessing—it’s about preparing for whatever happens next.

Say you’ve got a multi-million-dollar project relying on steel, concrete, and electrical components from Canada and China. If you’re not running scenario forecasts, here’s what’s going to happen:

Scenario 1

No tariffs: Great, everything stays the same.

Scenario 2

10% tariff: Now, your material costs jump. Can your bid handle it?

Scenario 3

25% tariff: It’s game-changing. Are you adjusting now, or will you eat that loss later?

If you’re not modeling this out, you’re already behind.

Yeah, This Sounds Daunting. But It Doesn’t Have to Be.

All of this probably sounds daunting and time-consuming—because, well, it is. That’s why smart contractors aren’t doing it manually.

Luckily, there are tools out there that do the heavy lifting for your PMs. And I’ll do a shameless plug here: ProNovos equips construction professionals to lead with confidence by providing a central hub for project management and financial intelligence. With intuitive tools that transform project managers into project leaders, ProNovos gives PMs greater control, reduces time spent on administrative tasks, and ensures projects run smoothly. By delivering complete visibility into project performance and financial health—from kickoff to closeout—this streamlined approach minimizes costly errors, protects profit margins, enhances cash flow, and ensures that every project is successful.

Final Thought

Tariffs may or may not be coming. But hope isn’t a business strategy. The industry’s leading contractors aren’t waiting—they’re planning.

For more insights on where the industry is headed, check out my new ebook,
Navigating the Future — How ProNovos Aligns with Construction Trends for the Rest of the Decade. This book explains how top contractors are adapting, how financial forecasting is changing, and what you need to do to protect your profits in a rapidly shifting market.